area forecast discussion  fxus66 khnx 090940  afdhnx  area forecast discussion  national weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca  240 am pdt mon jul 9 2007  .discussion...  upper low off the central coast is forecast to intensify as the  ridge remains well to the east of the region. as the low gets  better organized by tuesday...this will increase the se flow  across the region and also the moisture as well as the cloud cover  which will cool things down a bit...especially across the mountains.  have removed pops for this evening as moisture will be limited.  however tuesday and tuesday night look to be the best time for  chance of showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and  desert areas. the high _base_d...generally dry thunderstorms may be  enough to warrant a fire weather watch for tuesday. will let the  day shift contact users and discuss any potential statements  needed.  wednesday the sw flow returns across the region with drier  conditions forecast and a bit cooler as the h5 heights continue  to drop. the low quickly accelerates north by thursday and the  ridge over the four corners area begins to build back to the west  through the reminder of the period. this would bring dry  conditions and warmer temperatures...with the century mark being  broken again by friday in the typical hot spots in the valley and  in most places in the valley by saturday and continuing into  sunday. temperatures will remain below the critical 105 degree  range through sunday.  &&  .aviation...vfr conditions will prevail through 12z tuesday. for  specific details...please refer to the tafs for kmce...kfat and  kbfl...and tweb routes 421 and 423.  &&  .air quality issues...  none  &&  .hnx watches/warnings/advisories...  none.  &&   __________________________________________________________________________  avn/fw...ds  public...jdb  weather.gov/hanford Boycott Internet Spam:  See <URL:http://spam.abuse.net/spam/ The National Weather Service data is made available courtesy of the National Science Foundation-funded UNIDATA Project and the University of Michigan.

area forecast discussion  fxus66 khnx 091518  afdhnx  area forecast discussion  national weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca  818 am pdt mon jul 9 2007  .update...a quick update this morning to raise  high temperatures  _base_d on trends and profiler data.  &&  .discussion...mesonet shows temperatures trending upward at nearly  all stations and _base_d on yesterdays highs i have raised maxes for  today for the entire area. a quick look at the thunderstorm  potential for tomorrow and wednesday indicates the threat for  tuesday is increasing as water vapor satellite imagery shows the  upper low spinning about 300 miles west of the central coast as  a fetch of mid level moisture surges westward along the mexican  border. forecast models continue to project this moisture to  become entrained in the increasing southeast flow and this will  set the stage for thunderstorms over the sierra and kern county  mountains and desert. as for the chances of residual thunderstorms  on wednesday, forecast models have ample moisture early in the day  however as the flow turns more south and then slightly southwest  during the day, drier air should arrive. at this time,  thunderstorms have been removed from the forecast however a small  threat is still possible over the sierra. will likely need to add  the thunderstorms back on the afternoon forecast.  &&  .aviation...vfr conditions will prevail through 18z tuesday. for  specific details...please refer to the tafs for kmce...kfat and  kbfl...and tweb routes 421 and 423.  &&  .air quality issues...  none  &&  .hnx watches/warnings/advisories...  none.  &&   __________________________________________________________________________  dudley/ds  weather.gov/hanford Boycott Internet Spam:  See <URL:http://spam.abuse.net/spam/ The National Weather Service data is made available courtesy of the National Science Foundation-funded UNIDATA Project and the University of Michigan.

area forecast discussion  fxus66 khnx 092100  afdhnx  area forecast discussion  national weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca  126 pm pdt mon jul 9 2007  .discussion...quite weather this afternoon over the forecast area.  satellite imagery continues to show the nose of mid level moisture  pushing northwestward across southeast california as the low well  west of central california entrains moisture. it will take some  time for the deeper moisture feed from northwest mexico to reach  central california with the latest model timing suggesting towards  dawn tuesday morning. the vorticity center which should be the  trigger for thunderstorm activity is now moving up the baja coast  and forecast models bring it up across central california during  the day on tuesday. with the initially very dry airmass,  thunderstorm development will be high _base_d at first with a real  threat of dry lightning. a fire weather watch for dry lightning  has already been issued. by later tuesday afternoon deeper  moisture will likely advect across the forecast area from the  south and the dry lightning threat will subside. the southerly  trajectory of the vorticty center will have to be watched as  thunderstorms just could form over the kern county mountains and  clip the san joaquin valley. will leave out the mention of  thunderstorms at this time and see how the pattern evolves. it  looks like any organized areas of thunderstorms will move north of  the forecast area tuesday evening and overnight as the vorticity  center heads north. as for wednesday, even though the triggering  vort center has moved away, the flow will stay southerly long  enough for a continued threat of isolated storms over the  mountains. i have reintroduced thunderstorms per collaboration  with surrounding offices. things look dry for thursday as the flow  shifts to the southwest and friday looks dry also. the latest gfs  does bring northward, another vorticity center for friday  afternoon and evening however i will not introduce any convective  chances at this time. little to no big change in the pattern over  the weekend and into next week as the ridge is progged to remain  over the four corners area.  &&  .aviation...vfr conditions will prevail through 00z wednesday. for  specific details...please refer to the tafs for kmce...kfat and  kbfl...and tweb routes 421 and 423.  &&  .fire weather...isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will be  possible in the southern sierra nevada above 4000 feet...as well as  the tehachapi mountains...for several hours tuesday. this will be in  advance of a deeper monsoon flow that will arrive in the afternoon.  .air quality issues...  none  &&  .hnx watches/warnings/advisories...  fire weather watch from tuesday morning through tuesday  afternoon for caz295297.  &&   __________________________________________________________________________  dudley/bingham  weather.gov/hanford Boycott Internet Spam:  See <URL:http://spam.abuse.net/spam/ The National Weather Service data is made available courtesy of the National Science Foundation-funded UNIDATA Project and the University of Michigan.

area forecast discussion  fxus66 khnx 100444  afdhnx  area forecast discussion  national weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca  944 pm pdt mon jul 9 2007  .update...  &&  .discussion...a weak shortwave impulse moving north along baja  is helping to draw moisture northward toward central california  between the upper low off the coast and the ridge centered over  the southwest us. satellite and radar loops indicate northward  drifting clouds...mainly mid and high level at this time...are  beginning to encroach on the kern county deserts at this time.  as the shortwave moves north across the district ahead of the  deeper moisture...high _base_d thunderstorms producing dry  lightning remain a threat over the mountains tuesday morning. the  fire weather watch continues. the upper low will linger offshore  for the next several days...inhibiting westward expansion of the  ridge. this combined with increased moisture and clouds will help  hold temperatures only slightly above climo.  &&  .aviation...local mvfr in thunderstorms...beginning over the  deserts by around 09z and spreading north across the mountains of  interior central california. otherwise...vfr conditions will prevail  through 06z wednesday. for specific details...please refer to the  tafs for kmce...kfat and kbfl...and tweb routes 421 and 423.  &&  .fire weather...isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will be  possible in the southern sierra nevada above 4000 feet...as well as  the tehachapi mountains...for several hours tuesday. this will be in  advance of a deeper monsoon flow that will arrive in the afternoon.  &&  .air quality issues...  none  &&  .hnx watches/warnings/advisories...  fire weather watch from 8 am pdt tuesday through tuesday  afternoon for caz295297.  &&   __________________________________________________________________________  jeb/bean  weather.gov/hanford Boycott Internet Spam:  See <URL:http://spam.abuse.net/spam/ The National Weather Service data is made available courtesy of the National Science Foundation-funded UNIDATA Project and the University of Michigan.

area forecast discussion  fxus66 khnx 101005  afdhnx  area forecast discussion  national weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca  305 am pdt tue jul 10 2007  .discussion...  ir satellite imagery indicates increase in mid and upper level  moisture streaming into the cwfa from the se. this moisture is  expected to continue through the day today with the chance of dry  thunderstorms along the sierra and also across the tehachapi  mountains. cloud cover will increase across the valley today and  into tonight and will lower temps a degree or two. a fire weather  watch has been issued and will stay up until just after this  mornings conference call with regional fire officials. the day  shift can determine if a red flag warning will be needed for dry  thunderstorms across the mountains today.  the threat of thunderstorms is expected to continue into wed  morning but will taper off as upper flow becomes more sw. the  upper low off the central coast will lift north and the ridge over  the four corners area will build north and west and clear things  out and heat things up through the weekend and into early next week.  &&  .aviation...an upper level disturbance will combine with monsoon  moisture bringing a threat of thunderstorms mainly over the  mountains. mid to upper level clouds will increase this morning  with widespread cigs lowering to near 10k ft but much of the  region will remain in vfr conditions except near any thunderstorm.  for specific details...please refer to the tafs for kmce...kfat  and kbfl...and tweb routes 421 and 423.  &&  .air quality issues...  none  &&  .hnx watches/warnings/advisories...  fire weather watch from 8 am this morning to 2 pm pdt this  afternoon for caz295297.  &&   __________________________________________________________________________  avn/fw...mv  public...jdb  weather.gov/hanford Boycott Internet Spam:  See <URL:http://spam.abuse.net/spam/ The National Weather Service data is made available courtesy of the National Science Foundation-funded UNIDATA Project and the University of Michigan.

area forecast discussion  fxus66 khnx 101613 aaa  afdhnx  area forecast discussion  national weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca  910 am pdt tue jul 10 2007  .update...to add red flag warning statement for the mountains and  foothills for today and tonight.  &&  .discussion...looks like the active day that has been advertised  is beginning. satellite imagery shows mid and high level moisture  has just about overspread the forecast area from the southeast.  a well defined vorticity center is noted over northern baja and it  it heading north at a steady pace. edwards radar is already  showing thunderstorms over san bernardino county and the  trajectory is northwest. it looks like a very active day for fire  weather as the very dry fuels and dry lightning potential will  combine for a nail biting day. forecast models are in good  agreement in lifting the northern baja vorticity center northward  up the state today and into this evening and threat of organized  thunderstorms will extend well into the evening. lingering  instability on wednesday will bring another shot of mainly  afternoon and evening convection to the mountains. more to follow  this afternoon.  &&  .aviation...an upper level disturbance will combine with monsoon  moisture bringing a threat of thunderstorms mainly over the  mountains. mid to upper level clouds will increase this morning  with widespread cigs lowering to near 10kft but much of the region  will remain in vfr conditions except near any thunderstorm.  for specific details...please refer to the tafs for kmce...kfat and  kbfl...and tweb routes 421 and 423.  &&  .air quality issues...  none  &&  .hnx watches/warnings/advisories...  red flag warning from 1200 pm pdt today until 500 am pdt wednesday  for dry lightning for caz295297.  &&   __________________________________________________________________________  dudley/bingham  weather.gov/hanford Boycott Internet Spam:  See <URL:http://spam.abuse.net/spam/ The National Weather Service data is made available courtesy of the National Science Foundation-funded UNIDATA Project and the University of Michigan.